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Family offices enter the final quarter of 2026 in a world that has tested every assumption about portfolio construction.
The war in the Middle East that began in February, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the energy shock that followed came on top of tariffs, elevated government debt and an AI investment boom that some fear has run ahead of itself.
Yet the global economy has proved more resilient than many expected, and family offices are responding not by retreating, but by repositioning.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook update, the IMF projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026, rising to 3.4% in 2027, and said the world economy had so far weathered the shock from the war better than feared.
Momentum in the technology sector helped offset the drop in energy supplies, though energy prices remained around 25% higher than before the conflict and the Fund raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 4.7%.
The data cited in this article draws primarily on the UBS Global Family Office Report 2026, which surveyed 307 family offices across more than 30 markets between January and March 2026; J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s 2026 Global Family Office Report, which surveyed 333 single family offices in 30 countries (59% of them US-based); and Goldman Sachs’ 2025 Family Office Investment Insights report, which surveyed 245 institutional family offices in mid-2025.
Survey timing matters: the J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs data predates the 2026 Middle East conflict, and figures from different surveys are not directly comparable.
What follows is a picture of where family offices around the world are directing capital, and why.
Key Allocation Themes for Global Family Offices
Artificial Intelligence and the Infrastructure Behind It
AI remains the defining investment theme for family offices worldwide. According to the UBS Global Family Office Report 2026, 65% of family offices are already invested in AI, and around half of those invest in data centre infrastructure, AI software and platforms, and semiconductor producers. Despite concerns that parts of the market may be overheating, the vast majority plan to maintain or increase their exposure.
The more interesting story is the broadening of the theme. Family offices are increasingly backing the physical ecosystem that AI depends on: UBS found that 37% are allocating to power and resources, 37% to infrastructure and 33% to AI-enabled healthcare.
J.P. Morgan’s research suggests there is still a gap between ambition and execution.
While 65% of its respondents plan to prioritise AI investments, only 43% have any venture capital or growth equity exposure, and just 21% hold any infrastructure, at an average allocation of 0.7%. J.P. Morgan’s strategists identify power as the key bottleneck for AI, making power generation and transmission a natural next step for family capital.
Rethinking the US Dollar and US Concentration
Family offices are increasingly questioning their reliance on the United States. UBS found that 65% of family offices expect confidence in the US dollar’s reserve currency role to weaken over the coming year, and 47% describe themselves as over-exposed to the dollar. The Swiss franc and the euro have emerged as the preferred diversification currencies.
North America still dominates, accounting for 52% of planned 2026 allocations, and US-based family offices have actually increased their home bias to 88%. Elsewhere, the direction of travel is clear: family offices in Europe and Asia Pacific are looking to rebalance toward Western Europe and Asia Pacific, and portfolios globally are tilting gradually toward emerging market equities.
Private Markets: Recalibrated, Not Retreating
Private markets remain central to family office portfolios, but the mix is shifting. Goldman Sachs found that average private equity allocations fell from 26% in 2023 to 21% in 2025 as muted exits weighed on new commitments, yet 39% of family offices expect to increase their private equity exposure, the largest share of any asset class.
Secondaries and private credit are the growth areas. Across family offices globally, 72% now invest in secondaries, up from 60% in 2023, according to Goldman Sachs, attracted by access to more mature portfolios, shorter duration and greater transparency.
The share of family offices with no private credit exposure fell from 36% to 26%, and 26% intend to increase their allocation. J.P. Morgan found that family offices most concerned about inflation are leaning hardest into alternatives, allocating around 60% of their portfolios to the asset class, roughly 22 percentage points above the average.
Real Assets: Infrastructure Up, Real Estate Down, Gold in Focus
The composition of real asset portfolios is changing. Among family offices planning allocation changes, UBS data shows real estate falling from 11% of portfolios in 2025 to 8% in 2026, while infrastructure doubles from 1% to 2% and gold rises from 2% to 3%.
J.P. Morgan likewise reported a meaningful decline in real estate exposure since its 2024 report, in favour of public equities.
Gold is the asset to watch. Family offices that hold it describe it as both a long-term allocation and protection against geopolitical risk, and some are using it to reduce their exposure to the US dollar. Even so, holdings remain modest: J.P. Morgan found that only 28% of family offices have any allocation to gold, at an average of 0.9% of portfolios, against the 3% to 5% its strategists suggest.
Defence, Security and the New Frontiers
A new generation of themes is emerging alongside AI. According to UBS, 29% of family offices are already allocated to defence and security infrastructure, rising to 39% among US family offices, with a further 11% globally planning to add exposure in the next 12 months. Automation and robotics (28%), longevity (25%), the space economy (20%), nuclear (16%) and quantum computing (15%) are also attracting capital.
Digital assets remain a niche but maturing allocation. UBS found that 24% of family offices hold crypto, typically at around 1% of portfolios, but 44% of those investors now treat it as part of their strategic asset allocation. Goldman Sachs also identified sports as a growing theme, with 25% of family offices already invested and a further 25% interested.
What Shapes Family Office Decision-Making
A Record Appetite for Repositioning
Strategic asset allocation has traditionally been the most stable element of a family office portfolio. That is changing. UBS found that 60% of family offices plan to change their strategic asset allocation in the next 12 months, the highest level in the history of its report and up from 35% a year earlier.
The appetite for change varies sharply by region, from 82% in the Middle East and 81% in Southeast Asia to 67% in Europe and just 21% in the United States.
The emphasis is on measured adjustment rather than wholesale reallocation. Developed market equities and bonds remain the backbone of portfolios, but family offices are making targeted tilts toward emerging markets, infrastructure and gold while trimming real estate and US dollar exposure.
A Longer and More Complex Risk Horizon
Geopolitical conflict is the dominant concern. UBS found that 64% of family offices see a major geopolitical conflict as a risk over the next 12 months, and 61% over the next five years. Longer-term worries are broadening: over five years, 56% are concerned about a debt crisis, 51% about a financial market crisis and 50% about a global recession, while concern about a global trade war is expected to ease.
Priorities differ by geography. J.P. Morgan found that geopolitics was the primary concern for family offices outside the United States, while US family offices were more focused on interest rates and inflation. How families respond also varies: those most worried about geopolitics hold almost double the average allocation to fixed income, while those most worried about inflation lean heavily into alternatives.
Succession: The Governance Gap
The generational transfer of wealth is the most consequential long-term issue facing family offices. UBS points to an estimated US$83 trillion moving between generations over the next two decades or more, yet only 35% of family offices have a succession plan for the family office itself, and just 27% have an organised process to prepare the next generation for future roles.
J.P. Morgan’s findings reinforce the point. A third of its respondents rank family conflict or misalignment on strategy and values among their top three risks to the family office, and another third cite the lack of a succession plan for key decision-makers. Families that still own operating businesses are about twice as likely to worry about internal conflict, and are more likely to respond with formal governance, including written constitutions or bylaws.
Professionalisation and the Rising Cost of Talent
Family offices continue to adopt institutional-grade practices. According to UBS, 68% have formal performance measurement processes and 60% operate with an investment committee, though fewer than half have a governance framework with board-level oversight.
That professionalisation comes at a cost. J.P. Morgan found that the average annual operating cost for a family office with USD 1 billion or more in assets has risen to USD 6.6 million, up from USD 6.1 million in its 2024 report, driven largely by competition for specialist talent.
Around eight in ten family offices outsource at least part of their investment portfolio, and cost is not among the top reasons for doing so: access to high-quality managers, performance track record and expertise rank highest.
Challenges to Navigate
The energy shock remains a live risk. The IMF has warned that a renewed conflict in the Middle East would catch the global economy in a weaker position than the first time, with many countries having already drawn down their oil reserves. Alongside trade fragmentation, the Fund also flagged the risk of a correction in market expectations for AI, a concern echoed by the many family offices that see parts of the AI market as overheating.
Return expectations may also need recalibrating. J.P. Morgan found that almost a third of the family offices it surveyed are targeting annual returns above 11%, yet none of the major asset classes in its long-term capital market assumptions is forecast to return more than 10%. Closing that gap points to greater use of alternatives and direct investment, with the additional complexity, illiquidity and due diligence that brings.
And the generational transition, while an opportunity, also brings complexity. Formalising governance, preparing heirs and managing the dynamics of a growing family require as much care and expertise as any portfolio decision.
The global picture is one of adaptation rather than retreat. Family offices are deepening their commitment to artificial intelligence and the infrastructure behind it, diversifying away from concentrated dollar and US exposure, recalibrating their private markets programmes, rebalancing real assets toward infrastructure and gold, and exploring new frontiers from defence to longevity.
The combination of record levels of portfolio repositioning, a once-in-a-generation transfer of wealth and a rapidly professionalising industry creates a genuinely multi-dimensional opportunity set for family offices navigating the decade ahead.
By attending our Alea Global Family Office Summit you can network with potential partners from around the world and find out everything you need to know to expertly navigate these opportunities.
Find out more at aleafamilyoffice.com.